The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight, nothing but politics, Gore and Bush campaign speeches, a Kwame Holman report on the battleground state of Missouri, a one-on-one between two young school teachers, a Terence Smith look at the latest campaign TV ads, and some wrap-up analysis by Mark Shields and Paul Gigot. It all follows our summary of the news this Friday.

NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: The Presidential race entered its final weekend today, with both sides trying to nail down key states. Vice President Gore said he'd carry one of them-- Missouri-- at a rally in Kansas City. He continued his attack on Governor Bush's Social Security plan. From there, he was off to Iowa and Tennessee, his home state. Bush said it was a good sign that Gore campaigned in Tennessee so close to the election. In Grand Rapids, Michigan, he said it means "he must be doing something right." From Michigan he traveled to West Virginia. We'll have excerpts from the Bush and Gore speeches right after this News Summary.

JIM LEHRER: Last night, Governor Bush confirmed he was arrested drunken driving in Maine in 1976, when he was 30 years old. He stopped drinking in 1986. And, he said he had kept the arrest private to protect his daughters. Today, he said he had made mistakes in his life, but had learned from those mistakes. His campaign spokeswoman charged the arrest disclosure was part of dirty tricks by Democrats. But the Gore campaign denied any role. The House recessed today until after the election. The Senate had done so on Wednesday. Both will reconvene November 14, to finish work on the federal budget in a rare lame-duck session. Before the House left, it approved a bill to begin a 30- year restoration project for the Florida Everglades. In the Singapore Airlines tragedy today, investigators in Taiwan said the 747 was on the wrong runway when it crashed on take-off Tuesday. We have a report from Harry Smith of Independent Television News.

HARRY SMITH: Amid all the complex theories for the Taiwan crash, a simple explanation emerged today, the most basic of pilot errors, a wrong turning.

SPOKESMAN: The runway he should have taken take off on is five left, which is this one. The runway he took off from is five right, which is this one.

HARRY SMITH: As the investigator's video shows, the consequences of that error were catastrophic. The runway was closed for repairs, and blocked with a concrete barrier and construction vehicles. The aircraft was hurtling along at 150 miles and hour when it smashed into two mechanical diggers. The impact split the aircraft into three pieces, two of which burst into flames. The pilot, who's still being questioned by investigators, hasn't yet explained why he was on the wrong runway. The weather on the night of the crash was appalling, with a driving rain and howling winds of an approaching typhoon. It was enough to persuade other airlines to ground their aircraft. One question grieving relatives are now asking is why this flight was allowed to even attempt a takeoff.

JIM LEHRER: The crash killed 81 people, 23 of them Americans. There were 98 survivors. Fresh fighting erupted in the Middle East today. Two Palestinians were killed in clashes with Israeli soldiers in the West Bank, and dozens were injured there and across the Gaza Strip. But both sides continued to try to implement a truce that they worked out early Thursday. Also today, a Palestinian negotiator said Yasser Arafat would meet with President Clinton in Washington after the U.S. elections next week. And Israel's foreign minister said Prime Minister Barak might go to Washington after Arafat's visit. The nation's jobless rate stayed at a 30-year low in October. The Labor Department said today that it held steady at 3.9%, despite a downturn in job creation. On Wall Street, the unemployment news had relatively little effect, but concerns about corporate earnings and interest rates pushed blue chip stocks down slightly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 62 points to close at 10,817. The NASDAQ Index gained 22 to finish at 3451. Another media merger was announced today. Viacom will buy BET Holdings, the owner of Black Entertainment Television. That's the nation's biggest cable channel aimed at blacks. Viacom owns CBS and MTV, among other things. It will pay $2.3 billion in stock for BET. The deal is subject to regulatory approval. And that's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to, nothing but politics, Gore and Bush speeches, the battle in Missouri, a one-on-one, the latest campaign commercials, and Shields and Gigot.

JIM LEHRER: Campaign speeches by the two leading Presidential candidates. Here is Vice President Gore speaking this morning in Kansas City, Missouri.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: Yesterday, Governor Bush said that Social Security was not a federal program. I am not sure what he meant. But if you read the transcript, he was... he was attempting to defend his proposal to take a trillion dollars out of Social Security, and he's promised it to two different groups of people. Now, he's been put on the defensive about this, because the people who understand how Social Security operates and the families that know why it is so important to ensure the dignity of life for those who are in their later years, have tried to add the numbers up, and the numbers do not add up. I know that one plus one equals two. But one trillion promised to two different groups of people doesn't add up unless you are using what kind of math?

CROWD: "Fuzzy math!"

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: Well, if you want fuzzy math, then he's your guy, but if you want someone who will fight to defend Social Security, who will give a new incentive for savings to young workers on top of Social Security, not at the expense of Social Security, then that's what I'm proposing. I'll put Social Security in a lock box, and I'll veto anything that takes the money out of Social Security, for anything other than Social Security (applause). But here is the point I am making: Governor Bush is on the defensive about Social Security. And so when he was trying to explain it he got carried away in one of his rallies and he said "they're scared of my plan. What do they think Social Security is, some kind of federal program?" Yeah -- (Cheers and applause) -- and a damn good one, too. (Applause) I believe we ought to raise minimum wage a dollar an hour for those who most need help. I think we ought to get rid of permanent striker replacement and protect the right to organize. I think that the time has come to say loudly and clearly that women who work just as hard as men in jobs today, and come home often and do a second shift, should not be given on average only 76 cents of every dollar a man earns. (Cheers and applause) I am for equal day's pay for an equal day's work. Are you with me? (Cheers and applause) So I ask you to go and win this election in Missouri, where the balance lies. I need your help. Let's vote on Tuesday for the kind of change we need. God bless you. Thank you very much. Let's win. (Cheers and applause)

JIM LEHRER: Now Governor Bush speaking this morning in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: I think you'll find it interesting, for my opponent in his closing hours will be asking for the vote in Tennessee. (Laughter) I don't know if you remember... I don't know if you remember when he was saying he was trying to escape from the shadow of the President. Well, guess what? The shadow is back. (Cheers) The President will be flying into Arkansas tomorrow to try a last-minute rescue mission. But you need to know something: I'm not worried; I'm flattered. I figure this: If we've got President Clinton back in Arkansas and Al Gore back in Tennessee, we must be doing something right. (Cheers and applause) The Clinton-Gore administration has allowed spending on defense research to decline in real terms, despite warnings even from fellow Democrats. Last summer, one Senator wrote the White House that cuts in defense research were, in his words, "real and dangerous," and have slowed the development of a number of capabilities that will be needed by our war-fighters in their near future. This Senator wasn't running down the military when he wrote the letter. He was pointing out a mistake in policy and failed leadership. And who was that worried Senator? Well, it was Joe Lieberman. He was right then, and his running mate is wrong now. Two decades ago we had a similar debate in this country. The Republican challenger said we were not fully prepared for the threats and opportunities that lay ahead. It's a good thing we had that debate in 1980, because we know that challenger was right. We needed the leadership of Ronald Reagan. (Cheers and applause) His leadership... His leadership not only prepared us for victory in the Cold War, but gave us the force that won the Gulf War. A leader's responsibility is to understand that if he happens to hold the highest office of the land, there is an important responsibility with the office, so important in our lives to learn. It's become clear to America over the course of this campaign that I've made mistakes in my life. But I'm proud to tell you I've learned from those mistakes. (Cheers and applause) And that's the role of a leader, is to share wisdom, to share experience with people who are looking for somebody to lead.

FOCUS - THE SHOW ME STATE

JIM LEHRER: Nowhere is Tuesday's election larger, and more important, than in the battleground state of Missouri. Kwame Holman has that story.

KWAME HOLMAN: For motorists crossing the Pony Express Bridge from Kansas into Missouri, there are no signs to alert them they're entering an election- year battleground. But once across the Missouri River, in the quiet city of St. Joseph, there's ample evidence of it. And almost every race here pits bedrock Republican conservatism against eight years of economic prosperity under Democratic administrations. Here in St. Joe, where the Pony Express began 140 years ago, residents get another delivery of political rhetoric every time they turn on their televisions.

SPOKESPERSON: Sam Graves voted against stiffer penalties for repeat drunk drivers. And Graves has taken thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from the liquor industry.

SPOKESMAN: We can't count on Steve Danner to take part. He failed to vote in seven of the last ten local elections. Maybe he just didn't have the time. But Steve Danner had the time to vote to raise his own pay and raise your taxes.

KWAME HOLMAN: Steve Danner is a Democrat running for Congress in Missouri's sixth district, which includes St. Joseph, along with 27 mostly rural counties that stretch north from Kansas City to the Iowa border. Danner worries voters might be suffering from election-year fatigue.

STEVE DANNER: I think that so many people out there are... Have been tired of all the commercials on TV, and kind of been bombarded again and again and again, and I hear so many folks telling me now they've just turned off the televisions. They're not paying any attention anymore. I think it will be those folks that get their voters out, who are on the ground, who are working, going door to door, who are out at 6:00 in the morning, and not back in until midnight at night.

SPOKESMAN: Going to take this street down leer.

SPOKESPERSON: Okay.

SPOKESMAN: That will work.

STEVE DANNER: That's what will make the difference in having folks turn out - I think is the key to this election.

KWAME HOLMAN: Sam Graves, Danner's Republican opponent, essentially agrees.

SAM GRAVES: There's going to be a lot of voter turnout based on this campaign-- in particular for Congress-- and I don't know which direction it is going to go. We may very well be the margin that helps the top of the ticket. Who knows?

KWAME HOLMAN: At the top of the ticket, of course, are the choices for President.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: I think the great state of Missouri is going to be Bush- Cheney country ( applause )

KWAME HOLMAN: George W. Bush was in Missouri yesterday.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: We're going to carry Missouri on Tuesday.

KWAME HOLMAN: Al Gore visited the state today. The two candidates have made frequent trips to Missouri in pursuit of its 11 electoral votes. The state is considered a toss up.

SPOKESPERSON: Candidates for the White House proved once again that Missouri is a key state in the upcoming election.

KWAME HOLMAN: The media coverage has provided the candidates with multiple opportunities to reach Missouri voters, including those in and around St. Joseph, 50 miles away from Kansas City.

SPOKESMAN: It's kind of a screwball state, because you have St. Louis and the rest of the state.

KWAME HOLMAN: Frank Kessler is a political science professor at Missouri Western State College in St.Joseph.

FRANK KESSLER: St. Louis looks more like the industrial Northeast. Kansas City to a great extent doesn't. And the group that you hear in St. Joe would fit very nicely, I think, maybe somewhere in North Carolina. They're old conservative Democrats is what they are, and they still call themselves Democrats. But I don't know, I may be fooling myself, but I've seen a movement in the Republican direction.

KWAME HOLMAN: Just north of St. Joseph is Savannah, population 4,300. The town is solidly Republican and unquestionably conservative.

SPOKESMAN: It really is a dynamic community that seems to be growing.

KWAME HOLMAN: Dairy farmer Dan Hegeman represents Savannah as well as the rural areas that surround it in the Missouri state legislature.

KWAME HOLMAN: Are the themes the same from the top of the ballot, all the way down?

DAN HEGEMAN: To a great extent, I think they are. People want to bring integrity, and honesty, and respect back to the office again, and I think that that is how they will vote up here in Northwest Missouri, you know. That takes us back to that nonsensical natural Missouri conservatism that we express. (network difficulty)

KWAME HOLMAN: And that conservatism is a factor in Missouri's governor's race as well. Republican Jim Talent, a four- term congressman from suburban St. Louis, is giving up a safe seat in hopes of becoming Missouri's next chief executive.

JIM TALENT: You can have a set of people who believe in this country and this state and the traditions and the institutions and the values of private life, who believe in the family and the small town and the small business and opportunity for people, or you can have a set of people who believe in government.

KWAME HOLMAN: The Democratic candidate for governor, state treasurer Bob Holden, is banking on a continued sound economy to sway Missourians.

BOB HOLDEN: So the voters on this November the seventh will get to make a decision whether they want to continue to make the progress in education and health care and keeping our house fiscally sound, or do they want to radically change courses and turn our back on our seniors, turn our back on our children, and turn our back on fiscal responsibility in the state of Missouri.

KWAME HOLMAN: The latest polls show a very tight race for governor in Missouri.

SPOKESMAN: Live from the historic Gem Theater, the Missouri Senate debate.

KWAME HOLMAN: The most anticipated showdown in Missouri had been the race for United States Senate. Entering from stage left at this Kansas City debate three weeks ago was the incumbent Senator and former two-term Governor, Republican John Ashcroft. From stage right came Democrat Mel Carnahan, Missouri's sitting two-term Governor, prohibited by state law from running for a third term. ( Applause ) Ashcroft's long has been one of a handful of Republican seats coveted by national democrats in their hope to retake control of the Senate.

SEN. JOHN ASHCROFT: My plan for the next term is to build on the prosperity which we're enjoying for the future. I'll have a $200 billion trust fund for classrooms. I'll continue to protect Social Security. We'll pay off the publicly held debt of the United States of America in the next decade. That's very important.

GOV. MEL CARNAHAN: My opponent has proposed a $4 trillion tax cut that would make all of things impossible. It would use Social Security. It would cut Medicare, and it would make it impossible to make improvements in education.

KWAME HOLMAN: Less than 24 hours after the debate, Mel Carnahan was killed when his small planewent down in bad weather near St. Louis. The pilot, Carnahan's son, Roger, and a campaign aide also died. The state of Missouri immediately went into a period of mourning. A solemn vigil was held the next night at St. Louis' Washington University, site of the third and final presidential debate. A moment of silence was observed before the questioning began. For the next week, almost all political activity across Missouri came to a halt out of respect for Governor Mel Carnahan.

SARA JO SHETTLES: In essence it was a traumatic situation that literally froze us for days.

KWAME HOLMAN: Sara Jo Shettles is chairwoman of the Democratic Party in Clay County. It includes the developing suburbs north of Kansas City. Shettles is hoping that despite his death, Clay County voters will join with other Missourians and vote Mel Carnahan for Senate.

SARA JO SHETTLES: I feel like people must understand that they need to vote for Mel Carnahan, that that vote is as strong and as valid as any vote they can make this election, if not even better and stronger.

KWAME HOLMAN: Mel Carnahan died just three weeks before election day. By state law, Missouri Democrats were precluded from putting a replacement candidate on the already printed ballot. So on November 7, Carnahan's name will appear in the column for U.S. Senate. If Carnahan wins, Missouri's governor will appoint someone to serve in his place.

JEAN CARNAHAN: Should the people of Missouri elect my husband, I pledge to take their common dreams to the United States Senate.

KWAME HOLMAN: Jean Carnahan was the first and obvious choice of now-Governor Roger Wilson for possible appointment to the Senate. Some Republicans criticized Wilson for announcing his choice before the election. State Representative Dan Hegeman was not one of them.

KWAME HOLMAN: Was the governor's decision appropriate?

DAN HEGEMAN: Well, certainly... I mean, some people contend that it wasn't appropriate for Governor Wilson to make that announcement beforehand. There is some contention that it violated, I believe, some federal laws, and certainly there are concerns there. But I think people do need to have an idea who might be appointed, and that's all we're doing.

KWAME HOLMAN: Republican John Ashcroft resumed his campaign for reelection one week after Carnahan's death. He did so quietly, making breakfast for the homeless at a St. Louis shelter.

SEN. JOHN ASHCROFT: I thought that the best way to work through this was to spend some time reaching out to helping others who are in need. And I think that I would recommend that to people around the state.

KWAME HOLMAN: Political Science Professor Frank Kessler.

FRANK KESSLER: Ashcroft, I'd hate to be his handlers, because he must be walking on eggshells trying to figure out what he can say and what he can't say. I'm not sure how a guy like Ashcroft is going to be able to handle a race like that. I bet he's just thankful that there's only a couple of weeks left.

KWAME HOLMAN: Some polls show Ashcroft trailing Carnahan. The Senator admits running against the name of a deceased candidate is awkward.

SEN. JOHN ASHCROFT: I'm not campaigning against anybody. Right now I'm campaigning for the United States Senate. And I'm campaigning for some ideas that are important to the future. I don't want to quibble about that, but I'm not campaigning against anyone.

KWAME HOLMAN: With those tight races to consider, Missouri voters have much on their plates. But in the northern suburbs of Kansas City, on the farms and in the rural towns that dominate the landscape, and in the city of St. Joseph there's one more tight race to decide: Choosing a representative for the sixth congressional district. When Congresswoman Pat Danner decided last spring to focus on her recovery from breast cancer rather than run for a fifth term, that previously safe Democratic seat was thrown open to challenge.

SPOKESMAN: I know that she is going to miss it very, very much.

KWAME HOLMAN: Danner's son, Steve, a motel developer and former state Senator, jumped in immediately. Republicans recruited state Senator Sam Graves from a far rural corner of the district.

KWAME HOLMAN: What has defined this campaign between you and your opponent thus far?

SAM GRAVES: It's a very basic definition: You know, extreme liberal views versus conservative views.

STEVE DANNER: I want to go to Washington to represent the people of the sixth district. I'm going to be a moderate in the center and there will be those of us in the center who will make the final decisions and my decisions will be based on not party, but will be based on what is best for my constituents.

KWAME HOLMAN: The two have charged and counter charged in the debates.

SAM GRAVES: I want to reiterate exactly what my opponent's words were. The most important thing about this election, he says, is how we spend that surplus. It's a clear distinction, how we spend the surplus. It's spend, spend, spend. That's all my opponent wants to do.

MODERATOR: Rebuttal?

STEVE DANNER: Well, there he goes again. Sam, I think you ought to spend some positive energy on looking forward to the future and giving a vision of where we want to go.

KWAME HOLMAN: Polls show Republican Graves is in a good position to take away a seat Democrats probably were relying on to help gain control of the House and Graves believes a strong Republican ticket in Missouri only increases his chances.

SAM GRAVES: I think this is a state that is going to go for George W. Bush, and that obviously helps. How much it helps is anyone's guess. You know, we always try to analyze, you know, if there are going to be coattails coming up or coattails coming down. It is hard to tell. So at least my strategy has always been to concentrate on my race and move forward, and stick to my message and not try to worry about any other races. But, you know, you just never know.

STEVE DANNER: Everyone has his or her own reason that they vote. I'm not sure that we can ever know how the interplay intertwines between candidates in a party. And I think that now with the untimely passing of Governor Carnahan, that's a whole new facet that's been added to this election. But, you know, it's up to those of us who are here in the field every day to pick up, to carry on, to talk about the things that are important in this election. And you don't worry about other things that you have no control over.

KWAME HOLMAN: Few in Missouri are willing to predict the outcomes of its national, state, and local elections. After all, Missouri is the show- me state, and who better symbolizes the importance of counting the votes first than Missouri's favorite son, Harry Truman.

JIM LEHRER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight, the Bush-Gore argument, the latest campaign ads, and Shields and Gigot.

SERIES - ONE ON ONE

JIM LEHRER: Another one-on-one. Our last week debates on who should be the next President of the United States and to Ray Suarez.

RAY SUAREZ: Joining me now are two public high school teachers. Lea Kelley teaches English in Tacoma, Washington, and advises the school newspaper there; she supports Vice President Gore; and Joe Beckett, who's a student teacher in Anne Arbor, Michigan; he's earning his master's degree and is backing George W. Bush.

Joel Beckett, why do you support Governor Bush?

JOEL BECKETT: I support Bush for two main reasons: One, because he is in favor of school choice. I think competition is essential for the school reform that politicians are talking about nowadays. And second, I support Bush because he's in favor of faith-based programs, after school programs.

RAY SUAREZ: And, Lea Kelley, why do you support Al Gore?

LEA KELLEY: I support Gore for a number of reasons. In terms of education, I believe that Al Gore is unwilling to leave any school behind in this new economy. I think that offering students choice becomes almost an excuse toe to allow some schools to fail and other students to join successful schools.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Joel, you mentioned school choice as one of your big points in favor of Governor Bush. I know you have mentioned you would like to go to work in the Detroit system. How would school choice, the way the Governor visions it, change a system like that one?

JOEL BECKETT: Well, first of all, I think if you are going to change family schools, there needs to be some kind of accountability. You have over 65,000 students right now on a waiting list for scholarships to go to private schools and to parochial schools. And I think we should honor the opinions of the parents whose child are in the inner city schools and some of the failing schools. If they say that vouchers are going to be a good thing, that school choice is a good thing, I want to trust their opinions. I want to trust that they know what's best for their student.

RAY SUAREZ: Lea Kelley?

LEA KELLEY: Yes.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, how would this idea addressing the problem, especially failing schools, in let's say a large city, aging district?

LEA KELLEY: Well, I think that ultimately the answer for all of our students is improve all of our schools. So rather than investing our public money in private schools, parochial schools, what we should do is invest in the public schools that we have. We should reduce class size. We should improve the buildings that are falling down. And then we benefit all students -- both the ones that are in public schools and the ones that are already in successful private schools.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Governor Bush in his education program proposes a system where it would be easier, let's say, to close down schools that simply have not done the job for their children. Can you see that as part of an answer?

LEA KELLEY: I think that there's nothing wrong with closing down a failing school if you have actually done everything that you can to improve that school. But we haven't yet made an effort to really improve schools. We've given schools tests but we haven't given them the means to improve their schools. They don't have the books; they don't have desks for all of their students. And until we do that, I don't think that you can say that the schools themselves are failing.

RAY SUAREZ: And you feel that Vice President Gore has more of an answer that goes toward that part of solving the school puzzle?

LEA KELLEY: I feel that Gore has expressed a willingness to use federal funds to invest in school construction and so, yeah I do think he has done that.

RAY SUAREZ: And Joel, when we talk about failing school systems, do you agree with Lea Kelley that not enough has been done yet by anybody to address some of the things like aging buildings, the need for more teachers?

JOEL BECKETT: I think there have been a lot of significant efforts made, and I applaud the people who have made the efforts. But at the same time I don't think we need to wait for ultimate failure before we introduce some kind of alternative system. I think by waiting until the school, you know, actually crumbles is a foolish way to go about it. I think it is obvious enough that there are a lot of schools in the inner city that are struggling. I don't see why we wouldn't want to do something about that now. I think everything should be done to help those students, yet at the same time you have all these families that are asking to get out and are asking for help to go to other schools, schools of choice, parochial schools, private schools. And I think we should honor that; we should honor the opinions of the people that are stuck in these failing schools.

RAY SUAREZ: Coming out of the conventions, Joel Becket, Vice President Gore made several speeches to large gatherings of teachers and got big applause each time when he mentioned that he wanted teachers to be treated like professionals and paid better. I guess an observer might think that would be music to your ears.

JOEL BECKETT: I'm certainly not going to object to better pay. One of the things that do I like about Bush in regards to that statement is he supports teacher testing. If you look at other professionals like lawyers or real estate agents or CPA's, they all have to go through a rigorous amount of testing to be able to get where they are. And I think teachers shouldn't be exempt from that. I think teachers should have to prove that they know the material that they're going to be teaching and should be accountable to that. I think there are far too many teachers that are in schools today, and that are influencing the nation's youth, that really don't have a handle on the topics that they're trying to teach.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Lea Kelley, would Vice President Gore, who is a clear ally of the teachers' unions help reach Joel Becket's goal of making it easier to test for competence of teachers?

LEA KELLEY: Well, Gore certainly has said that he would like to toast teachers. But I don't think that testing anyone can be the answer. Obviously teachers that don't like teaching or don't know what they're teaching should not be teaching. But what we need to do is not focus on getting rid of the teachers we have but hiring new teachers and giving the teachers that we have the training that they need and the time that they need to adequately meet the needs of all of their students.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, since we're on the subject of testing, both candidates have proposals that include using testing as a tool for understanding how the students are doing. How do you feel about that part of the proposal, Lea?

LEA KELLEY: I think that if you're going to use testing, you have to be willing to invest in helping students to meet the guidelines that you are putting on the tests. You can't simply give someone a test and say here, you have to pass this. You have to say we're going to help you pass the test. We're going to provide you with the training. We are going to make sure that every student has a book. Then we're going to give you the test, we're going to see what you're doing and how we can help you to improve.

RAY SUAREZ: And, Joel, what about Governor Bush's emphasis on teaching and his education proposals - testing and his education proposals?

JOEL BECKETT: Ray, I think that he has shown in Texas... I mean I completely agree with everything that Lea said. Yes, we do need to be able to equip the students to be able to pass a test instead of just giving it to them. But I think in Texas that has happened. The score of fourth graders, African American fourth graders in Texas among national tests was one of the best in the nations. That to me sounds pretty positive. That sounds like they've made good progress, certainly among the students that have performed poorly in the past, particularly minority students in failing schools, they've made a concerted effort to help them out, to teach them the skills that they're going to need and test them appropriately on that.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, in addition to both being teachers, you're both young working people as well. Do you believe that your prospects are brighter, Joel Beckett, in the coming years as you start to get your career going and start to make some material gains for yourself, that the things will do better under a President Bush?

JOEL BECKETT: Yeah, I do. I am pleased with the amount of publicity -- education and how it's been such a hot issue this whole election. I think it's good that the nation has finally started to pay attention to it and realizing that we might have a problem in our hands in the next few years with so many teachers retiring and whatnot. As far as material gains, yes, I do think Bush is going to be best for the economy. I think we have a strong economy right now, but the economy is only going to slow down with more taxes and heavier regulation. I think Bush believes in the freedom of the marketplace and he is going to trust the marketplace to do what's best for the country.

RAY SUAREZ: And, Lea Kelley?

LEA KELLEY: Yes, I don't think that Bush would be good for the economy. I think that his policies are not sound fiscal policies. I think that a tax credit is not going to improve how our economy runs. I think that we need to take the money that Americans have already paid through taxes and use that to reinvest in our students who are our most struggling students and so that we can bring them up so that everyone can successfully participate in the economy.

RAY SUAREZ: Lea Kelley, Joel Beckett, thank you both very much.

JOEL BECKETT: Thank you, Ray.

FOCUS - AD WARS

JIM LEHRER: Now, the candidates final push over the airwaves, and to media correspondent Terence Smith.

TERENCE SMITH: Battling into the final weekend of the presidential race, each campaign is putting its best advertising foot-- and fist-- forward. This Bush ad, entitled "Nonsense," stops just short of calling the Vice President a liar.

AD SPOKESMAN: Now Al Gore is bending the truth again. The press calls Gore's Social Security attacks nonsense. Governor Bush sets aside $2.4 trillion to strengthen Social Security and pay all benefits.

VICE PRESIDENT AL GORE: There has never been a time in this campaign when I have said something that I know to be untrue. There has never been a time when I have said something untrue.

AD SPOKESMAN: Really?

TERENCE SMITH: Matching attack for attack, this Gore ad began airing yesterday in many swing states. Building on past charges, it questions Bush's readiness to lead.

AD SPOKESMAN: Texas now ranks 50th in family health care. He's left the minimum wage at $3.35 an hour, let polluters police themselves. Today, Texas ranks last in air

quality. Now Bush promises the same $1 trillion from Social Security to two different groups. He squanders the surplus on a tax cut for those making over $300,000. Is he ready to lead America?

TERENCE SMITH: On the flip side, both candidates are running ostensibly positive ads that subtly reinforce the alleged shortcomings of the other: Experience for Governor Bush, trustworthiness for Vice President Gore.

AD SPOKESMAN: He has the experience to be President: A life of service...

TERENCE SMITH: This Gore ad, entitled "Experience," touts the Vice President's accomplishments and sets forth his goals.

AD SPOKESMAN: Pay down the nation's debts. Strengthen Social Security. Cut taxes for middle-class families. Save our environment. Experience, vision, values. Al Gore.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: I believe we need to encourage personal responsibility so people are accountable for their actions.

TERENCE SMITH: This Bush ad, dubbed "Trust," has been running in various forms for weeks.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: He trusts government. I trust you. I trust local people to run their own schools. I trust you with some of the budget surplus.

TERENCE SMITH: The ad war is being fought in a handful of battleground states with the Gore and Bush campaigns matching each other nearly dollar for dollar in: Florida, Pennsylvania, Washington, Oregon, and much of the Midwest. The exception is California, where Bush is spending millions on advertising and Gore had spent nothing through October 24. According the Brennan Center at New York University Law School, the two campaigns had spent almost $50 million between them on advertising prior to the closing phase of the race. Their respective parties spent an additional $68 million marking the first time in history that the unregulated soft money expenditures by the national committees have exceeded the so-called hard money spent by the campaigns themselves.

FOCUS - POLITICAL WRAP

JIM LEHRER: And that brings us finally tonight to Shields and Gigot. Syndicated columnist Mark Shields and "Wall Street Journal" columnist Paul Gigot.. Paul, what do the ads tell you about where the campaign is on this last weekend?

PAUL GIGOT: It tells me that the Gore campaign, the first ad we ran which is very tough, as tough as you'll ever see in a presidential race, I think, is part of the strategy where they're trying to shake up this race, Jim. I think they understand they're behind and they need to do something to undermine the perception voters have about George Bush as a leader and George Bush's capacity and so they're throwing the kitchen sink at them, everything they got, Social Security, Texas record, doubts about his leadership. Bush is responding with that Social Security spot, which is really also a credibility spot, taking on something that has moved some voters in Florida, Pennsylvania, a little bit in Michigan, the Social Security issue has, for Gore. They're trying to respond to that and twist it to Bush's strong point, which is raise doubts about Gore's trust and credibility. So they're going back and forth trying to play to their strengths.

JIM LEHRER: So, trustworthiness versus experience?

MARK SHIELDS: I don't know if it's trustworthiness against experience, Jim as much as this is a race that has come down to the qualities of the two men involved and the character and the experience. It's a very personal....

JIM LEHRER: What I meant is the Gore people are trying to... are questioning Governor Bush's experience and the Bush people are questioning Vice President Gore's trustworthiness.

MARK SHIELDS: Sure. I think that's the principal thrust. That's what the Texas record is all about. And it's to raise doubts about the comfort level of continuity, whether in fact Governor Bush would... that Al Gore becomes the safer choice. In an interesting way, the Gore people are betting on experience being more important than it has been in most presidential elections. To use a poker analogy that... experience politically comes down to about a pair of deuces.

JIM LEHRER: Explain what you mean.

MARK SHIELDS: In other words, it's not a big hand, not four kings. I mean, what he is arguing is Gore has this experience, long, extensive experience and Bush doesn't have any, and they're hoping the pair of deuces which is what experience - not his own experience - what experience really amounts to politically... usually candidates -- voters stipulate the candidates for President have experience. He is basically trying to deny that Bush has experience that is comparable to that needed for a President.

JIM LEHRER: Do you think it's going to fly, Paul?

PAUL GIGOT: No, I don't. I think that this year when voters mention the personal qualities that are most important to them, at the top are trustworthiness and honesty in making judgments. I think that's a legacy of the last seven years with Clinton. But those are the things that voters say are the most important personal characteristics. So experience is a pair of deuces. It's down the list, no question about it this year.

JIM LEHRER: So why is Gore still hanging in on that one?

MARK SHIELDS: I think it has doubts about George Bush -- two out of five voters question whether he has the knowledge and the ability to be President of the United States.

JIM LEHRER: That's different than experience, right?

MARK SHIELDS: That's right, but it goes right to the experience. In other words, that's part of those questions; it's reinforcing the doubts voters already have about him. And I just listened in Terry Smith's piece about Governor Bush saying personal responsibility, people are accountable for their actions. Well, when you're run on straight forwardness, you run on honesty, the last thing you want in the last weekend of the campaign is to have an issue introduced that raises doubts about your own straightforwardness and honesty.

JIM LEHRER: And that's the drunken driving thing. Let's segue to that. What is your feeling, Paul, about the downside of that for George W. Bush at this point?

PAUL GIGOT: Well, certainly, a distraction, Jim. I believe with that without that, without this element, Bush was going to - he had a comfortable... not a comfortable lead but a solid lead, and that he didn't need anything to knock him off that trend because he was marching to the White House, I believe. He had enough support that unless something shook the race up, he was probably going to win on Tuesday.

JIM LEHRER: What are the negatives for him in this? Why do you think it has the potential for shaking it up? What is there about this issue?

PAUL GIGOT: I mean, I don't know if it will or not. I'm not that smart, but I know that it gets him off message somewhat. That's part of the problem; it's a distraction. What the Democrats are going to try to do ironically is to try to say, this is Clintonian. It's a character issue here to try to... because that has been George Bush's big advantage over Al Gore, and they hope this evens the playing field. Now, I think that so far it doesn't look to be that level to me. I mean this is something that did happen 24 years ago, it's something that he seems to have been straightforward about answering so far. Last night he was pretty good. The only sour note that I heard is when he said when he raised the possibility that this had been four days before an election, he didn't need to do that. That's a Clintonian touch because you blame your political enemies. If he just answered it and said I took my medicine. I didn'tdo it... I didn't deny it, not proud of it but I don't think this disqualifies him to be President.

JIM LEHRER: Where is the vulnerability here from your point of view, Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: Vulnerability is two places where Paul described it. The decision by the Bush folks to go after the source of the story rather than the substance -- had nothing to do with the source. I mean, this was not planted, this was not a dime dropped on him by an unfriendly person. This was a court record. I think the most serious one, Jim, is the second-day cycle. What you want to avoid in a story like this is end it the first day. The "Dallas Morning News", Wayne Slayer, long time reporter who has covered George Bush extensively, reported today that George Bush in an interview two years ago, this isn't 24 years ago said that he had not been arrested since 1968. Paul's point about the Clintonian, I can remember in 1992, when Bill Clinton said he forgot he received a notice from the draft board. I said at the time, Jim, you can forget your first kiss, you can forget your first beer. But when you're living day-by-day to avoid military induction, you don't forget when you get a draft notice any more than when you forget you have been arrested especially at that point of being Governor of Arkansas - he'd been Governor of Texas - had George Bush -- for four years when he supposedly told this to the "Dallas Morning News". That guarantees the story is into Saturday. Now, you're into two days on the story. He is off message. The good news for Bush is that it keeps Gore off message because it pushes Gore off the front page as well and it starts to become a story. So if we're still talking about this on Sunday, with a new wrinkle and some other element to it, that is not good for Governor Bush. I don't share Paul's sense that this race was over by any means. I still think that we have an inflated national number because of George Bush's 28-point lead among white southerners where he is going to run up the score among the southern states.

JIM LEHRER: We'll get to that in a minute. But Paul, what about the issue that some people have raised that there would have been no problem here if Bush had just revealed this when he announced for president many, many, many months ago?

PAUL GIGOT: I believe that strongly. I believe he should have done this as a matter of political judgment. He did after all say I didn't lead a perfect life as a young man. I drank too much as a young man. He has been perfectly candid about that. That can certainly fall into that category, particularly since it's a matter of public record. It makes me wonder what is he thinking? He didn't think his opponents were going to try to dig something like this out? He should have done it. His argument that he wanted to hide this from his daughters, I believe him. It's a worthy objective. He is not your average suburban dad. He is running for President. And he is running for an office where people play for keeps. And we know the rules in this city, been here the last seven years, we found out, if anything has happened, it comes out. The way this might work to George W. Bush's advantage is precisely on that point. There could be something of a backlash to help him if somehow had begins to be perceived by the public as that same old brand of politics, his theme of I want to change the tone of Washington and move, that could help him.

JIM LEHRER: The story just for the record is that this story got out yesterday because a former Democratic candidate for governor in Maine told somebody and got the storyout. There is no evidence there was any link to the Gore campaign or whatever.

MARK SHIELDS: There isn't. And I mean, you know, that's interesting but it's not important. What is important is the story.

JIM LEHRER: I'm just speaking to....

MARK SHIELDS: I understand that. But I think you raise the central question, Jim. You said should he have inoculated himself by opening up. Sure. This was two years before he even ran for Congress. My point is the story by itself, is it World War III, no? Is it going to cost him the election? No. But if, in fact, it is updated, if it's made fresh by other stories where he has misled the biggest and most important and probably the most respected paper in the state, and a paper that has covered him quite fairly, then it becomes a problem and newsworthy.

JIM LEHRER: I'm going to make you all really earn your money. This is Friday night, we're going into the last weekend. Factor what we've just been talking about in, in other words the possibility of fallout one way or the other on the drunk driving thing, the polls say this election is really very close. How do you read it based on everything that you know, all the wisdom and experience that you have, bring to bear on this question.

MARK SHIELDS: Reminds me of '56... No.

JIM LEHRER: None of that.

MARK SHIELDS: It's an election unlike any I've ever seen. It is closer than I could ever recall.

JIM LEHRER: You really believe it is close.

MARK SHIELDS: I believe it is close.

JIM LEHRER: The polls are right.

MARK SHIELDS: Shields: I believe it's close in the sense that if you start off with Al Gore has to carry New York and California -- if he doesn't, if he fails to carry those, he is gone. George Bush has to carry Texas and Florida. If he doesn't carry Florida, he has got to carry Pennsylvania. If he doesn't carry Pennsylvania, he has got to carry Michigan. And if Al Gore wins Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan by 11 votes each, George Bush is toast. He can't put it together. The numbers... You can string together all the New Mexicos and little bit of New Hampshire up here and then go get Maine and come down to West Virginia, it can't be done. So you're down to these big large states where these candidates have concentrated all their effort, all their attention, all their energy and it is, I mean it is something to behold.

JIM LEHRER: Something to behold.

PAUL GIGOT: What Mark is saying though is that Al Gore has to win all three of those, probably has to win all three. Two of the three for sure, the big states, Pennsylvania Florida Michigan, and maybe all three because this is the other point I think that has changed from previous years. I think Mark would have been right in 1996, Bush must win Florida. But there are a lot more states at play than anybody ever imagined this year. Washington and Oregon, Bush could win one or both. Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Bush is probably going to carry Wisconsin. Louisiana which Clinton carried twice -- safe for Bush now. Kentucky which Clinton carried twice -- safe for Bush. Ohio probably safe for Bush. So you're talking about...

MARK SHIELDS: Those are figured in.

PAUL GIGOT: No. I'm saying they guarantee the election but I read it a little different than Mark; I think Gore has the more difficult electoral task right now and that is he has to run more of an inside straight in the electoral college.

JIM LEHRER: There's that poker analogy again.

PAUL GIGOT: He has to win I think basically two out of the three....

MARK SHIELDS: I would not disagree with that.

PAUL GIGOT: Particularly those big toss-up states which could go either way. And I think don't just look at the polls or electoral college. Look at the candidates; look at the campaigns. You can tell who is winning and where the campaigns are just by watching them. I went on the stump this week and looked at both. The Bush campaign is a more relaxed campaign. It's a more confident campaign.

JIM LEHRER: You agree with that Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: Yes, it is.

PAUL GIGOT: He's a more confident campaigner, more optimistic. Vice President Gore is straining - it's as if he is trying to find something, anything that will really turn this around.

JIM LEHRER: Do you agree with that, Mark, that Bush is going to go with what he's got and Gore is still looking for something?

MARK SHIELDS: I think there's no question that Bush has his message down and I think he is comfortable with his message. He delivers it. He is a more disciplined candidate; that Gore continues with a sort of a sense of urgency and striving. But just as an example this week there was no reason on God's green earth for George Bush to go to California. He is not going to carry California. Nobody on the Republican side thinks he is going to carry California. He went there to tweak Bush.

PAUL GIGOT: I disagree with you.

MARK SHIELDS: He went there... He kept a promise to California that he wouldn't turn his back on it, that he would help out the congressional candidates. California is 370 electoral votes. I mean that's when you're at 370 looking for 390. You are not talking about getting 270 by going to California.

JIM LEHRER: To summarize the views of Shields and Gigot tonight for all of America to hear, this race for President on the Friday night before the Tuesday is too close to call. Is that correct? Do I summarize your views?

PAUL GIGOT: Yes, but I think that George Bush has a lead that is significant enough to, that if nothing changes, he is the next President of the United States.

MARK SHIELDS: I think this race is a more uncertain race than it was 48 hours ago, and I think... I think we're down, Jim, to a series of pitched battles in major states that truly could go... I think intensity is on the republican side and I think the psycho drama is on the Democratic side which man the Clinton thing has been awful.

JIM LEHRER: That's a yes.

MARK SHIELDS: It is.

JIM LEHRER: Thank you both. Thank you both very much.

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: Again, the non-political campaign news of this Friday: The U.S. House joined the Senate in recess until after the election. They'll begin a lame-duck session November 14. And investigators in Taiwan said a Singapore Airlines 747 was on the wrong runway when it tried to take off Tuesday. It hit construction equipment and crashed. We'll see you on-line, and again here Monday evening. Have a nice weekend. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.